Iran today reminds me a little...

...of China in the late 1970s. If I'm right, we could be on the verge of a whole new era of better relations between the two countries.

After Deng Xiaoping assumed power at the end of the Cultural Revolution, China began its thaw with the United States. Deng was the ultimate pragmatist and saw rapprochement with the West as vital to China's progress. The result has been a lessening of tensions and an increase in trade that has benefited both nations.

I think relations with Iran could be poised for a similar development. I see a number of parallels. Like Vietnam, the U. S. is bogged down in two civil wars on the borders of Iran with no end in sight. The Iranians have been the prime beneficiary of the wars and have gained confidence as a result. The U. S., in contrast, has become more aware of the limits to its power. Iran's continued isolation, however, has proven problematic to them and the desire to reenter the community of nations is now seen as advantageous. A reactionary government in the U. S. is no longer in office and its successors are seen as willing to restore diplomatic relations in an effort to lower tensions. And like China, Iran has been in the midst of a national nervous breakdown that is beginning to be seen by some as counter-productive. As a result, both parties would benefit from improved relations.

If the scenario I see plays out, Ahmadinejad will be defeated in the presidential election on June 12. I think the mullahs see him not only as an embarrassment but also as a barrier to improved relations with the U. S. If Mir Hossein Mousavi is elected it should set the table for a thaw. I see further evidence of this happening as Mohsen Rezai announced his candidacy yesterday, which should siphon off votes from Ahmadinejad. With new, more pragmatic leaders in both Iran and the U. S., a new era of peaceful coexistence could emerge.

If Ahmadinejad wins reelection in June then I was wrong and all bets are off.