Nate Silver writes...

...in the print edition of the New York Times this morning, "Seems Awfully Smooth for a Wild Ride":

...after a period of polling turmoil following President Obama’s convention in Charlotte, N.C., and Mitt Romney’s sharp rebound after the first presidential debate in Denver, the polling in most swing states now looks very similar to the way it did for much of the late spring and summer.

And this confirms something I've been thinking lately: maybe the cake has been baked since before the conventions and the debates took place. Maybe the post-convention bounce experienced by President Obama and the post-first debate bounce experienced by Governor Romney have both come down to earth and we're right back where we were in early August. And where was that? About a 51-49 percent victory for the president in the popular vote and an Electoral College total somewhere in the neighborhood of 280-90 votes.

Or, as Mr. Silver puts it:

There is a pretty good possibility that our forecast in every state on Nov. 6 will be the same as it was on June 7.