article I've read on the subject lately was by a Republican named Myra Adams. And the most important thing to remember from her piece is this (my emphasis):
Democrats start with 246 electoral votes.
That's really all you need to know, but if you want to read more, there's this:
As Republicans gear up to “take back the White House” conservatives need
to be aware of one startling fact: in 2012 if Romney had won the three
swing states of Ohio, Florida, and Virginia, HE STILL WOULD HAVE LOST THE ELECTION.
After totaling the electoral votes in all the terminally blue states,
an inconvenient math emerges, providing even a below average Democrat
presidential candidate a potential starting advantage of 246. Here are
the states and their votes:
New York, 29
New Jersey, 14
New Hampshire, 4
Rhode Island, 4
District of Columbia, 3
Let me repeat, if only for the
shock value: 246 votes out of 270 is 91 percent. That means the Democrat
candidate needs to win only 24 more votes out of the remaining 292.
(There are a total of 538 electoral votes.)
No wonder President Obama was so confident of victory in 2012, for he
knew the game was practically over before it began. In case you need
reminding, the final Electoral College score was a lopsided 332–206.
So the next time you hear someone talk about the 2016 presidential election, just remember: the Democratic candidate (whomever that is) begins with over 90 percent of the Electoral College. All the rest of it is a distraction.