Monday, July 28, 2014

The Times has upped...

...the Republicans' chances of retaking the Senate this year from 54 percent in April to 60 percent today. From The Upshot:

With the addition of the YouGov estimates to our model, the overall outlook for the Senate remains roughly the same. The Republicans appear to have a slight advantage, with the most likely outcome being a Republican gain of six seats, the minimum they need to finish with a 51-49 seat majority. But we, like many other forecasters, would not be surprised by a gain of anywhere from four to eight seats.

The article has the GOP prevailing in seven out of nine close races: Georgia, Kentucky, Arkansas, Michigan, Louisiana, Iowa and North Carolina. The two states it has remaining Democratic are Alaska and Colorado.

I'll concede Georgia and Kentucky; those two are deeply red states. But do you really think Democratic incumbents are going to lose in Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina? From another piece, in Roll Call:

It’s hard to beat incumbents — especially Democrats. Republicans will likely need to defeat at least three Democratic incumbents to pick up six seats, and the party simply has a weak track record of doing that. A grand total of 14 incumbents have been defeated in general elections over the past five election cycles, which includes three straight wave cycles from 2006 to 2010. Of those, just three were Democrats, dating back to then-Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota in 2004.

As for Democratic seats in blue Michigan and purple Iowa, are they really going to flip to the GOP? Is there some Republican wave out there a la 2010 that I'm just not seeing?

I still say the Democrats hold the Senate in 2014.

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