Wednesday, July 16, 2014

I know it's early, but...

...if the New York Times can have an article titled, "Christie to Test Presidential Hopes in Iowa Trip" on its front page, then I can mention four early primary state polls on RealClearPolitics. In short, Mike Huckabee is leading in Iowa, Chris Christie in New Hampshire, Christie and Jeb Bush in South Carolina and Bush (of course) in Florida.

My take? Huckabee won't run, Christie is damaged goods and Bush doesn't have the fire in the belly. Right now, I'd say it's between Rand Paul and Mitt Romney, with the edge going to the establishment candidate.

2 comments:

Ed Crotty said...

Rand Paul as Goldwater is insulting to Goldwater. And I don't think Mitt is willing to lose again. The real primary on the GOP side includes only 3 voters - Adelson and the Koch Brothers. My guess right now is Kasich. http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/governors-christie-walker-and-kasich-woo-adelson-at-vegas-event/2014/03/29/aa385f34-b779-11e3-b84e-897d3d12b816_story.html

Mike Tracy said...

Interesting, but I'd say Kasich is not only charisma-challenged but also committed what may be the unpardonable sin for Republican governors this cycle: he expanded Medicaid in Ohio.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/11/26/john-kasichs-medicaid-expansion-gambit-is-a-double-edged-sword/