...had three Republicans in a virtual tie for the 2012 nomination. (It's never too early for political junkies to start thinking about this stuff.) The survey had Mike Huckabee with 22%, and Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin tied at 21%.
I'll bet that none of them comes close.
Romney is great at fund-raising but that's about it. Considering how much money he raised last time around, he ran one of the worst presidential campaigns in recent memory. Given all his pandering and flip-flops, it's hard to know where he stands on anything. He had a wide open field in 2008 and failed miserably. Write him off.
If Huckabee and Palin both run in 2012 they are sure to divide the base. Even if one of them were to drop out and allow the other a clear path to the nomination, I don't think the party is in the mood for a landslide defeat on the order of Goldwater or McGovern. And I just don't see how either one of them could poll over 50% of the general electorate.
So who does that leave? Plenty of people that I think are better bets: Mark Sanford, Bobby Jindal, Jon Huntsman, Mitch Daniels, and yes, even Newt Gingrich and--gulp!--Jeb Bush. I've heard other names mentioned and it wouldn't surprise me if the eventual nominee isn't even on the radar screen yet. (How many people were touting Obama in 2005?) But the one thing that these individuals have in common is gravitas. And whoever runs against Obama is going to have to have plenty of intellectual heft to make a credible showing in 2012.
2 comments:
Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota. You heard it here first.
I've heard his name mentioned, but I don't know that much about him. Is he presidential timber?
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