...in Virginia and New Jersey. The important races to watch are for the 23rd Congressional District in New York and the Florida Republican primary for the U. S. Senate.
Bob McDonnell, the Republican, is pretty much a lock to beat Creigh Deeds, the Democrat, for governor of Virginia. And in New Jersey it's a toss-up between the incumbent Democrat, Jon Corzine, and the Republican, Chris Christie. Whatever happens, don't read too much into the results of these races. As for the Florida primary, Charlie Crist is fending off a challenge from the more conservative Marco Rubio. This is an important race to be sure, but the primary isn't until August, 2010.
So that leaves the Congressional race in New York on November 3. It's for the soul of the Republican Party. But it could also have implications for the two-party system, at least for the near future. If the Conservative Party candidate, Doug Hoffman, outpolls the Republican Dede Scozzafava--even in a losing effort--it will be a victory for the Sarah Palin wing of the GOP. It will also paint the Republicans further into an ideological corner. If Scozzafava wins, it will be a victory for Newt Gingrich and the more pragmatic wing of the party. And if the Democrat in the race, Bill Owens, should win in a traditionally safe seat for the GOP, it would be a huge loss for both. (A Democrat hasn't represented this district since the 19th century, although Obama carried it in 2008.)
It might sound like a really obscure race, but political junkies will be reading the tea leaves very carefully.
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