At Intrade...

...the chance that a health care bill with a public option passing by year's end just jumped to 13%. But that's still less than the 19.5% chance for the "USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 30 Jun 2010."

I lost a lot of faith in Intrade during the last election cycle. If anything, it was a good argument for inefficient markets. But this seems really out of whack.