...in the NYT today entitled "Learning How to Think." He makes two good points especially. The first is that the predictions of experts are, on average, only a tiny bit better than random guesses. So be wary of those financial, political, and sports shows that offer experts' opinions. (You might end up like a certain blogger who concluded after countless hours of watching this stuff that Romney would square off against Hillary in '08.) The second point Kristof makes is the hazard of adopting a hedgehog's, as opposed to a fox's, approach to reality. This idea must be in vogue now because this is the second time I've seen it. In a nutshell, it says that a hedgehog sees the universe through an ideological prism while a fox tends to be more pragmatic. According to Kristof, the foxes tend to be right more often.
As a recovering hedgehog, I can appreciate this. It's a common human tendency to adopt a worldview from which to order the universe. It's comforting to have a framework in which everything fits neatly. It's also intellectually lazy. Most people would rather massage the facts than rethink their ideology. It's just too unsettling; they'd have to scrap their worldview and start all over. So rather than reconsider their assumptions, they continuously force square pegs into round holes. As a result, the pursuit of truth takes a back seat. Alan Greenspan is one notable exception. After a lifetime as a laissez-faire economist, he recently admitted that some of his assumptions were flawed. I give him enormous credit for that; he should be an example for all of us.
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Good column. My plan is to be a fox on "net". For instance, I am attempting to wade through Joseph Schumpeter's Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy where Marx is discussed as smart but hopelessly wrong and polemic. I figure if I can make it about half way through it, I can hold on to my Cheney-Oil mantra and come out about even!
This is why I try to read the editorial page of The Wall Street Journal. First of all, it gives you an alternative viewpoint that serves to keep you honest. Secondly, it's an example of hedgehoggery at its worst. It has a strict conservative outlook and shapes reality to fit its ideology. I sometimes shake my head as I read it; they work so hard to make the facts fit their conclusions. To give just one example, they were such ardent supporters of the Iraq War that they had to be the last people in America to give up on the idea of Weapons of Mass Destruction--if they ever did. Unfortunately, The Journal isn't available for free on the Internet. Another great Web site is RealClearPolitics.com. It's good at presenting both sides of an issue.
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