I wish this bounce in the stock market was for real...

...but I'm afraid it's only a rally in a bear market. Don't get me wrong; they can be thrilling. In one year during the Great Depression the Dow nearly doubled. But I'm afraid that a true bottom would be met not with capitulation or extreme bearishness but rather a complete lack of interest. For example, the bottom in the last great bear market was on December 4, 1974. Trading volumes were anemic as most people had given up on the stock market altogether. I was only 16 back then so I can't remember the sentiment too well. I was more focused on getting my driver's license. I do know that when I came down to the Merc in 1981 no one was talking about equities. Commodities were the hot topic, particularly precious metals. The Hunt brothers had just tried to corner the silver market in the late '70s and gold had rallied up to around $750 an ounce. It came back down to earth, however, and for years was out of everyone's consciousness while financial assets exploded. Can you recall the low in gold prices and the year it bottomed out? Me neither. Which is exactly my point. Stocks will reach a bottom when everyone stops looking for one. People will stop talking about the market and (gasp!) CNBC may have to go off the air for lack of interest.