I still think the most conservative...

...candidate in the race will win the 2016 Republican nomination. And, right now, that's Ted Cruz.

Doyle McManus wrote a piece on the Texas senator yesterday:

Last week, Cruz won a straw poll at a major gathering of the party's conservative wing in Denver with an impressive 45% of the votes, far ahead of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul.

Timothy Noah, meanwhile, writes (my emphasis):

54% of Republicans think the party should move “in a more conservative direction,” as against 40% who favor moving “in a more moderate direction” and 5% who are either satisfied with the current direction or don’t have an opinion.