Monday, February 15, 2010

The health care summit next Thursday...

...is all about molding public opinion. In fact, health care reform--like any issue--has always been about molding public opinion. And this is where President Obama and the Democrats took their eyes off the ball. While they were busy crafting legislation, their opponents were defining the issue in the public's mind. And they were good at it.

All throughout the campaign of 2008 and up until last summer, health care reform polled well. Only after its opponents began to demonize it did its numbers begin to slip. And after the town hall meetings in August, it became clear that reform would be an extremely heavy lift. Congressmen and senators just don't like to vote against the will of their constituents. As any self-respecting Chicago mobster would tell you, "It's bad for bizness."

So Thursday is the last chance for the proponents of reform. President Obama will try to make the Republicans look as if they have no ideas and are obstructionist. If successful, he may persuade the congressional Democrats to pass a bill. And that's why it would be political suicide for the GOP to boycott the meeting. Empty chairs do not make for good optics.

The Republicans, on the other hand, will try to portray their opponents as attempting to shove an unpopular bill down the throats of the American people. They will try to come off as bargaining in good faith while the Democrats are hopelessly out of touch with the public.

So who will win the battle for the hearts and minds of the American people? The bill is unpopular with the public right now, but so are the Republicans. Can Obama--once again--snatch victory from the jaws of defeat? If so, America may get a bill. If not, health care reform will be dead for another generation.

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