...senator last month, I've been asking myself the question, "What if health care reform doesn't pass?" Although Intrade has the odds of a bill passing at only 32% (as of this writing), President Obama could still pull a rabbit out of his hat at the health care summit next Thursday if he can successfully portray the Republicans as obstructionist. But the smart money is betting against it.
Nicholas Kristof, in the Times today, asks a similar question, "Do We Really Want the Status Quo on Health Care?":
The United States Public Interest Research Group calculated last year that without reform, insurance premiums for those with employer-provided health care would nearly double by 2016.
(That amount would be coming out of your paycheck--if your employer still offers insurance. Rising health insurance premiums was the main reason incomes were flat in the aughts.)
Also last month, the Urban Institute applied its computer model of health insurance costs to a scenario in which there is no reform, and this is what it found:
“Over the next decade in every state, the percent of the population that is uninsured will increase, employer-sponsored coverage will continue to erode, spending on public programs will balloon, and individual and family out-of-pocket costs could increase by more than 35 percent,” it said. It added that the number of uninsured Americans could reach as many as 65 million in another decade.
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