Tuesday, November 24, 2015

I already referenced this piece...

...by Nate Silver yesterday, "Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls," but it's so good I just had to reread it today. It's a bit of any eye-opener for political junkies like me, but the moral of the story is this:

If past nomination races are any guide, the vast majority of eventual Republican voters haven’t made up their minds yet.

So, even though I click on the latest polls and betting markets every time I sit down to my computer, Silver writes that the stuff I'm positively hanging on should really look more like this:

Undecided 80%
Donald Trump 5
Ben Carson 4
Ted Cruz 3
Marco Rubio 2
Jeb Bush 1
Carly Fiorina 1
Mike Huckabee 1
Chris Christie 1

According to Silver, exit polls show that (my emphasis):

In Iowa, on average, only 35 percent of voters had come to a final decision before the final month of the campaign. And in New Hampshire, only 29 percent had.

So if the Iowa caucuses are held on February 1, then most of this is just idle chatter until after the holidays. Remember, Rick Santorum was only in single digits at this time four years ago and won Iowa. Maybe the race for the Republican nomination really is up for grabs.

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