Friday, November 6, 2015

Earlier this week I wrote...

...that the Republican nomination could come down to a three-man race between Marco Rubio, Donald Trump and Ben Carson. While I haven't changed my mind, a quick reading of the polls and the betting markets today lead me to think there are five remaining candidates, with Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush the other two.

Huffington Post aggregate of polls:

Donald Trump, 28 percent
Ben Carson, 22.3
Marco Rubio, 10.2 
Ted Cruz, 8.5
Jeb Bush, 7.1

All the rest are polling under five percent. With less than three months remaining until the Iowa Caucuses, you have to wonder if anyone below this threshold can get traction. 

As for the betting markets, the names are the same if not the order. 

Paddy Power:

Marco Rubio, 11/8
Donald Trump, 4/1
Jeb Bush, 6/1
Ben Carson, 7/1
Ted Cruz, 10/1

After these five you have Carly Fiorina at 12/1 and then everyone drops to 20/1.

Like a lot of people, I think Jeb is a goner; he just can't seem to get it together. But because of all that money and establishment support you can't count him out just yet. I think it's fair to say, though, that it's a three-man race with Cruz an outlier should Trump and/or Carson fade (which isn't hard to imagine).


Ed Crotty said...

I think Cruz would get the vast majority of Trump's support if he were to drop out. But he won't. Cruz will try again in 2020 and 2024.

I think Carson is a fraud. He will drop and Trump will get most of his support.

Rubio will come in 2nd to Trump. Paddy Power clearly believes that the Kochs' money will put Rubio over the top. I think the Republican base will not be happy with a Hispanic man who flirted with immigration reform.

Agree Jeb is toast.

It is incedible, but I believe Donald Trump will be the nominee. And get trounced by Hillary.

Ed Crotty said...

^^ incredible ^^