Monday, March 16, 2015
Ever since Intrade...
Intrade, you may recall, while not perfect, was pretty darn good. For example, it had President Obama consistently beating Mitt Romney for at least a year or so before the 2012 election actually took place. In fact, it had the results on election night, state by state, long before the TV networks did.
Every now and then, of course, Intrade got something wrong, like Hillary's famous upset of Obama in the New Hampshire primary in 2008. But, on balance, it was the most reliable political predictor out there.
So now I'm watching Paddy Power and PredictWise. And tomorrow will be my first big test for the latter. While Paddy Power doesn't have the Israeli election on its site (at least as far as I can tell), PredictWise does. And, despite what you may have read elsewhere, it has Benjamin Netanyahu heavily favored to continue on as Prime Minister.
If Bibi loses, I'll be doing my happy dance. But I'm not counting on it.