Thursday, May 8, 2014

The chart of the day...

...shows how closely the Catholic vote mirrors the overall presidential vote in America. From an old piece by Chris Cillizza (my emphasis):

The 2012 result also marked the fifth time in the last six presidential elections where the candidate who won the Catholic vote has won the election. 

President Obama carried Catholics 50 percent to 48 percent while he won the overall national vote 51 percent to 47 percent. That's the third straight election where the Catholic vote has been a near-carbon copy of the overall vote.  In 2008, Obama carried Catholics by nine points and beat Arizona Sen. John McCain (R) by seven points nationally. Four years earlier, George W. Bush won the Catholic vote by five points and beat Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry (D) by three points nationwide.

Why do I bring this up? Because an article in today's Times reports:

By all accounts, Hispanics are the future of Catholicism in America. Already, most young Roman Catholics in the United States are Hispanic, and soon that will be true of the overall Catholic population.

Since 1980 Democratic candidates for president have averaged 64 percent of the Hispanic vote. (President Obama garnered 71 percent in 2012.)

How can Republicans win back the White House if the pivotal Catholic vote keeps trending Hispanic?

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