Friday, May 23, 2014

Hillary vs. Huck in 2016?

That's what the latest PPP poll in Iowa shows (my emphasis):

PPP's newest Iowa 2016 poll finds the same thing every 2016 poll ever conducted has found -- a wide open race on the Republican side, and Hillary Clinton with a dominant lead among the Democrats.

For the Republicans Mike Huckabee leads with 20% to 15% for Ted Cruz, 12% for Jeb Bush, 10% for Rand Paul, 9% for Chris Christie, 8% for Paul Ryan, 6% for Scott Walker, 4% for Marco Rubio, and 3% for Rick Santorum. Huckabee led on our February poll as well. Huckabee leads based especially on his strength with conservatives, women, and seniors.

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton remains ever dominant with 59% supporting her for the nomination to 12% for Joe Biden, 11% for Elizabeth Warren, 3% each for Cory Booker and Andrew Cuomo, and everyone else at 2% or lower. Clinton has an 83/12 favorability rating, and polls at least 53% with liberals, moderates, men, women, seniors, and younger voters alike.

Does any of this mean anything? Probably not. I doubt if Huckabee is even running. And what the poll doesn't measure is the strength of Rand Paul's organization in the state. But it's fun for political junkies like me to ponder. A few other interesting tidbits:

Huckabee is the only Republican to hit a 70% favorability rating in Iowa.

Jeb Bush, after Christie, has the second highest unfavorability rating of any of the serious contenders.

If Clinton doesn't run Biden leads the field with 34% to 22% for Warren, 7% for Cuomo, and 4% for Booker.

When it comes to the general election Hillary Clinton would lead all of the potential Republican candidates by similar margins to what Barack Obama won Iowa by in 2012. She leads Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul 46/42, Jeb Bush 44/39, Chris Christie 45/39, and Ted Cruz 47/40.

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