Everyone* thinks otherwise, but here's my reasoning: to gain the six seats necessary for a majority, the Republicans have to pretty much run the table. And that's really hard to do. How much would you want to bet on drawing an inside straight?
Forget about Kentucky and Georgia; Mitch McConnell will keep his seat just like Harry Reid did in 2010. And the eventual Republican nominee will prevail in Georgia. (Come on; did you really think the Peach State would send a Democrat to Washington in this day and age?)
But check out these Democratic incumbents:
Mark Begich, Alaska
Mark Pryor, Arkansas
Mark Udall, Colorado
Mary Landrieu, Louisiana
Jeanne Shaheen, New Hampshire
Kay Hagan, North Carolina
I had a guy on Twitter tell me yesterday that the Republicans would win four out of these six races. That's wishful thinking. I'll say right now that the Democrats hold at least five of these six. Beating an incumbent like Mark Pryor (above), for example, is a lot harder than it looks.
Republicans were positively giddy when they heard that Nate Silver gave them the edge this year. But I think everyone's getting a little ahead of their skis.
* Paddy Power, for example, has the GOP at 8/15 odds of winning the Senate; the Democrats are at 11/8.
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