Monday, April 30, 2012

Marco Rubio has pulled...

...into a (very slight) lead over Rob Portman in the race for Mitt Romney's running mate on Intrade. (It's essentially tied.)

What does this mean? I'm not sure; but it could portend a battle royal for the soul of the Republican Party. For Rubio represents the insurgent tea party wing of the GOP and has powerful backers, including Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina (and possibly Sarah Palin). Portman, on the other hand, is a member of the party establishment and probably has the support of old Bush hands like Karl Rove.

My guess is that Romney would prefer Portman, for a number of reasons. But this could be the first test of wills between the former governor of Massachusetts and the Republican Party base. If Portman gets the nod, it may signal that Romney will be his own man (and possibly govern as a moderate). If it's Rubio, however, it may reveal the GOP nominee to be a captive of the tea party.

Stay tuned; it's early.

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