Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Looking ahead to...

...Super Tuesday (and I'm always looking ahead -- can't get enough of this stuff, can I?), the ten states, in order of delegates, are as follows:

Georgia, 76 (Gingrich had better win his home state.)

Ohio, 66 (If you thought Michigan was closely contested, just wait until the Buckeye State. If Romney wins this key swing state it may be all over but the shoutin'. However, if Santorum wins...)

Tennessee, 58 (If Santorum can beat Gingrich here he may knock the former speaker out of the race.)

Virginia, 49 (Only Romney and Paul are on the ballot; what percentage can the Texas Congressman garner?)

Oklahoma, 43 (Another Tennessee; can Santo beat Newt here?)

Massachusetts, 41 (Romney wins his home state easily. Who cares about the Bay State? Hey, 41 delegates is nothing to sneeze at; Arizona only gave Mitt 29.)

Idaho, 32 (Romney wins the Mormon-rich state in a walk; and the delegate count continues.)

North Dakota, 28 (Intrade has Santorum in the lead.)

Alaska, 27 (May be the most interesting -- and closely contested -- race of all. Will Palin endorse someone?)

Vermont, 17 (Romney -- yawn.)

If Romney wins Ohio, Virginia, Massachusetts, Idaho and Vermont he should emerge as the clear frontrunner. If Santo, or Gingrich, wins any combination of Georgia, Ohio, Tennessee, Oklahoma, North Dakota and/or Alaska the chance of a brokered convention increases.

Bottom line: watch Ohio.

2 comments:

Ed Crotty said...

are they all "winner-take-all" like Arizona, or proportional like Michigan?

MTracy said...

All of the contests on Super Tuesday will allocate delegates on a proportional basis.