First, a short history lesson. The tea party emerged in the fall of 2008 (although it was still called the Republican Party base at that time). Finally fed up with the runaway spending and deficits of the Bush years, the base drew a line in the sand and rebelled over TARP. And not without reason. After all, weren't failing businesses in a market economy supposed to fail? Whatever happened to creative destruction? Was Main Street obligated to bail out Wall Street? This wasn't the way things were supposed to work.
But in the Real World, allowing Wall Street to fail may have very well brought about the failure of the American (and the world) economy. Oh, yeah? Sez who? Well, for starters, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Oh. Even a former free trader like George Bush figured it was better to bail out the banks than go down in history as another Herbert Hoover. I can just picture W in the Oval Office: "Risk my place in history? F*** that! Come up with a bailout plan -- ASAP!"
So while those on the far left and far right bitched and moaned, those in the center said, "Yeah, it stinks; but a global depression would stink even more."
And thus TARP was passed (on the second go-around) and the world was saved. (Give Bush credit for doing at least one thing right in eight years.)
But then came the inauguration of the first black president. And with it the stimulus, the auto bailout and health care reform. And the Republican Party base (now known as the tea party) went absolutely berserk.
At first the GOP establishment was ecstatic. Beautiful! The tea partiers could function as useful idiots in their plan to retake Congress and, eventually, the White House.
But a funny thing happened on the way to the voting booths last November. As the above cartoon illustrates, the tea partiers had other ideas. Establishment candidates were thrown overboard in favor of such right wing zealots as Sharron Angle, Christine O'Donnell, Ken Buck and Joe Miller (and others). And defeat in the Senate was snatched from the jaws of victory. Suddenly, the "idiots" weren't so useful.
Which brings us up to the present. Kevin Drum, David Weigel, and Joshua Green all weigh in this week on the state of the tea party.
And my take? As I mentioned in the first paragraph, the tea party itself may very well be splitting in two (or more). Because while Ron Paul has already announced for president, rival tea partier Michele Bachmann is also said to be considering a run. (And that doesn't even take into account Sarah Palin -- or Herman Cain.)
But Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann represent two very different constituencies. Paul is a libertarian; Bachmann is more of a culture warrior. (Don't be too surprised if there's a tea party-backed third party candidate.)
So whither the Republican Party? Do they have a consistent message, or is it just a coalition of Obama-haters? I'm afraid it may be nothing more than the latter.
Consider the GOP presidential hopefuls. Mitt Romney, the frontrunner, has problems with the base, the religious right, the tea partiers, opponents of health care reform, Fox, the Wall Street Journal -- I could go on and on. And he's the frontrunner! Then there's Tim Pawlenty (yawn), Newt Gingrich (if he's still in the race at the time of this posting), John Huntsman (maybe 2016), Mitch Daniels (if he can talk his wife into running -- or at least not running away) and ... well, you get the picture. In short, today's Republican Party is a train wreck. (And I didn't even get into the subject of Paul Ryan's radioactive budget or the disastrous new crop of GOP governors.)
So, again, whither the Republican Party? What do they stand for, besides hatred for that black guy in the White House? Hard to say. So while the GOP might very well retake the Senate in 2012, they could hand the House back to the Democrats.
And the presidential election? Forget it. It may turn out even worse for them than '08.
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