That leaves us with a top tier of five front-runners: Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels. Romney is the organizational front-runner; Daniels is the first pick of wonks and DC eggheads; Palin probably has the most devoted following among actual voters; Gingrich will dominate the debates, and Pawlenty (vying with Daniels) is the least disliked.
That makes me think the race is between Romney and Palin, but I just can't see either one of them winning the nomination.
Romney is clearly the establishment candidate and probably the front-runner. He has the resume, the ability to raise money and looks like he was sent from central casting. It's also his turn.
And yet ... Romney has so many debilitating negatives it's hard to know where to begin.
First of all, there's the authenticity problem. As Chuck Todd once said, who is Mitt Romney?
Second, Romney is a Mormon in a party dominated by Evangelicals; that's going to be a tough sell.
Third, Romney's single biggest achievement as governor of Massachusetts was health care reform; the new Republican House majority's first order of business is to repeal the Affordable Care Act. (Personally, I think he should have turned reform into a virtue, but, hey, no one asked me. Besides, it's too late now; he's already disowned it -- sort of -- kinda.)
Finally, Romney has trouble getting people to vote for him, and that's a problem in his line of work. In 2008 he just couldn't generate any enthusiasm for his candidacy. It's hard to picture anyone outside of his immediate family getting excited about Mitt Romney.
As for Palin, well, like most people, I just can't imagine the GOP committing suicide.
But if there's one thing I feel confident about it's that Marco Rubio (above), the new tea party senator from Florida, will be on everyone's short list for running mate.
Not only could Rubio bring balance to a ticket headed by an establishment candidate, but as the son of Cuban exiles (and fluent in Spanish), he could also appeal to the growing (and elusive for Republicans) Hispanic community. Rubio is from what may be the most important swing state in 2012 and could allow the GOP to focus more on states like Ohio. What's more, Rubio identifies as both a Catholic and an Evangelical. That checks a lot of boxes.
But remember, it's the top of the ticket that wins races, and no one in the current crop is going to beat Obama.
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