Thursday, December 30, 2010

If my family of origin had...

...had a motto (and, yes, those were two "hads," back-to-back), it could have easily been Saepe in errore, Raro in dubio, which translates into English as, "Often in error, Seldom in doubt."

With that, I think I'll take a stab at predicting the 2012 Republican nominee for president. (It's a slow day.)

In a previous post, I mentioned my difficulty in seeing either Sarah Palin or Mitt Romney at the top of the GOP ticket. I did, however, predict that Marco Rubio, the freshman senator from Florida and tea party darling, would be on everyone's short list for the number two slot.

So who does that leave for the nomination, Mike Huckabee? Newt Gingrich? Tim Pawlenty? John Thune? Rick Santorum? No, no, no, no, and, for the love of God -- no!

Partly by the process of elimination, I'm going to go with -- drum roll! -- Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, above. (This is subject to change, of course, as early as ... tomorrow.)

But for now, Daniels is the best Republican I can see on the horizon (as long as Jeb Bush stays out).

Mitch Daniels is in his second term as governor, having won reelection in 2008 by 18 points in a state carried by President Obama. (Daniels will be term-limited from running in 2012. Republican Congressman Mike Pence is expected to succeed him.) Before that, the Hoosier native spent most of his career in Washington, after attending Princeton and Georgetown Law School.

Daniels worked for Indiana Senator Richard Lugar in Washington and, before that, when Lugar was mayor of Indianapolis. He's been chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee; President and CEO of the Hudson Institute, the conservative think-tank; a senior vice president at Eli Lilly (private sector cred); and as director of the Office of Management and Budget under the second President Bush. (Whew! That's quite a resume. Reminds me of the first President Bush.)

As governor, Daniels turned a $600 million budget deficit into a $300 million surplus in his first year, by, among other things -- Shhh! -- raising taxes. (This was a big improvement over his tenure at OMB, where Daniels and President Bush turned a $236 billion surplus into a $400 billion deficit. Oh, well.)

With Daniels and Rubio, Republicans would get an establishment candidate at the top of the ticket balanced by a tea partier at the bottom. It could put two states that President Obama carried in 2008 -- Indiana and Florida -- into play for the GOP. Also, Daniels, a Midwesterner, could appeal to independent voters in the key swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Does the Indiana governor have any negatives? Of course. As I mentioned before, Daniels isn't against raising taxes if necessary; that could be a non-starter with the Club for Growth crowd. Also, Daniels was arrested for possession of marijuana in college and hasn't backed down from his recent statement that the GOP may have to call for "a truce on the so-called social issues." That could be tough to swallow for the base. In addition, Daniels is short, bald (not that there's anything wrong with that!) and charisma-challenged.

But Daniels is real, and a grown-up to boot, in a Republican Party full of what Bill Maher has called, "religious lunatics, flat-earthers and Civil War reenactors." He could be a good dark horse compromise in 2012.

1 comment:

FastEddie said...

Daniels would be a good choice ( as Bush Sr. was ) - a sane Republican. However, the Republican party has moved on and the sane need not apply. As such, he doesn't have a chance in hell.

My contention is that nobody who could possibly win in the general will be able to get the Republican nomination.

I predict Obama will crush either Palin or Huckabee.