Saturday, August 7, 2010

If you're as old as me...

...you may remember the "ABC" movement back in 1976 -- Anybody But Carter. This was a response from the Democratic Party establishment to the meteoric rise of the unknown peanut farmer and one-term governor from Georgia.

After a blitzkrieg that included victories in the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire and Florida primaries, Jimmy Carter was seen as cruising to the Democratic nomination for president. Fearing a blowout in the general, however, party elders thrashed about in vain for an alternative candidate. Carter went on to win the nomination and beat the Republican, Gerald Ford, in a squeaker. (Never mind how Carter's presidency turned out.)

I know what you're thinking: Thanks for the history lesson, but who cares? Bear with me, I have a point to make.

From an article in today's Times, "Republicans Push Back Primaries One Month" (my emphasis):

The Republican National Committee approved a plan on Friday seeking to avoid a stampede of early primaries in the next presidential campaign by pushing back the contests one month to extend the nominating season and produce a nominee who is tested in all parts of the country.

For the first time, Republicans would award some delegates on a proportional basis, abandoning the winner-take-all approach that often brought an early end to the primaries.

Inside baseball, you say? Perhaps. But it could be the first salvo in an "ABP" movement -- Anybody But Palin -- from the GOP establishment. Without these changes, Sarah Palin could win the Iowa caucus with a plurality, finish a respectable second in New Hampshire, win in South Carolina, and deliver the knock-out blow in Michigan. I think it's an effort to slow down the process and find someone else. Because as it stands now, Palin is the odds-on favorite to win the nomination only to get annihilated in the general (and bring down other Republicans on the ticket -- senators, representatives, etc.).

This could also pave the way for a Draft Jeb Bush movement.

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