Thursday, January 7, 2010

I've stopped listening to all those experts...

...and their market calls on CNBC. The business news channel has dozens of them on each day and each one of them has a convincing forecast backed up by interesting facts and observations. Oftentimes, they will have two people on simultaneously with completely different opinions! It can be very confusing. Also useless.

It reminds me a little of all those experts you see on all those football pre-game shows. Just the other night, before the Orange Bowl, Eddie George predicted that the game would result in a combined score of over 60 points. (I don't know why he would mention that since it's only relevant to the gamblers who are betting the Over/Under; I'm sure that never entered into his mind.) When pinned down, George said Iowa would win, 35-31.

"Quick! Get my bookie on the phone! I'll take the Over for a hundred bucks!"

Jimmy Johnson, who is one of the only coaches to win not only a National Championship but also a Super Bowl, scoffed at this. He went on and on about Georgia Tech's potent offense and confidently predicted that the Yellow Jackets would prevail by a score of 28-14.

"...And another hundo on Georgia Tech to cover!"

Iowa ended up winning, 24-14. Dang! (Maybe Johnson just read the teleprompter wrong. Some of those old guys can be so vain about wearing glasses on TV!)

But my point is that Eddie George and Jimmy Johnson have both forgotten far more about football than I will ever know; I'll concede that. They are genuine experts. But their opinions are still worthless to me. If I had bet the Over/Under based on George's call or took Georgia Tech based on what Johnson said, I would have lost money. And the same is true with the experts on CNBC. Their opinions are nothing more than "infotainment"; interesting to listen to, but that's about it. If you invested according to their advice I doubt very seriously that you would beat the indexes.

So I'll continue to watch CNBC for the latest economic releases and business news, but that's about it.

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