Sunday, January 10, 2010

Thomas Friedman wrote another...

...one of his gushing columns about China today, this one on how the world's most populous nation will overtake the U. S. in energy technology. In the Times, Friedman hyperventilates:

Being in China right now I am more convinced than ever that when historians look back at the end of the first decade of the 21st century, they will say that the most important thing to happen was not the Great Recession, but China’s Green Leap Forward. The Beijing leadership clearly understands that the E.T. — Energy Technology — revolution is both a necessity and an opportunity, and they do not intend to miss it.

Funny how Friedman always seems to be looking back on the present from some vantage point in the future. Maybe he's right this time, but I wouldn't count on it; his track record just isn't that good. In fact, it seems like Friedman has been wrong on just about every major subject he's tackled. (The Iraq War being probably the most egregious example.) And it doesn't help that he always hedges himself. For example, he's famously said in regard to China, "Never cede a century to a country that censors Google." You can be sure to hear that one a few more times.

I bring all of this up because of the article on Friday about James Chanos, the hedge fund billionaire. He's bucking the investment world's consensus by looking for ways to sell China short. After reading Friedman's piece this morning, I have one more reason to think he may be on to something.

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