The two key turning points for McCain...

...were his selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate and his pathetic response to the financial crisis.

Leading up to the Democratic convention, McCain had gained considerable ground on Obama. He was actually down only a point or two, within striking distance. If he'd picked another boring old white guy like Mitt Romney or Tim Pawlenty, or even a gutsier choice, like Joe Lieberman or Tom Ridge (the Democrats' worst nightmare, I think) he might even have been able to pull this thing off. Especially if he'd played the race card, over and over again. But instead, he chose Sarah Palin, which has proven almost fatal. I know, I know, she gave him an initial boost and certainly helped energize the base. Many commentators were calling it a game-changer at the time. And I remember thinking it was a game-changer, too. Except for Obama. Because in one fell swoop, McCain became the riskier choice. Never mind the question of whether Palin is as qualified as Obama (I won't argue the point, especially given her executive experience). The problem is that she was unknown to the public. I remember when her name was announced by Erin Burnett on CNBC. Mark Haynes response was, "Who?" TV commentators were not even sure how to pronounce her name. Obama, on the other hand, had been in the public eye since he gave that speech at the Democratic Convention in 2004. He had been publicly vetted for four years. Americans want their candidates to be vetted, not just by the individual campaigns, but by the, yes, mainstream media. Americans think the Fourth Estate has a crucial role to play in elections, by educating the populace.

After the successful roll-out and convention speech, it was all downhill from there. The media smelled blood when the McCain campaign wouldn't allow her to speak to the press or even hold a press conference. What were they hiding? Even Dan Quayle was made available for questions. Was she not ready to speak to the press? If not, how could she possibly be ready to step in as President if something should happen to the 72 year-old with a history of cancer? The anticipation grew for her interviews with Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric and her mis-steps were only magnified as a result. Last I checked something like 59% think she is unqualified for the presidency, which is one of the primary qualifications of a running mate.

As for the second turning point, much has been made of the effect of the financial crisis on the McCain campaign. No Republican could have survived that, it has been said. Perhaps. But I would submit that it wasn't so much the crisis itself, but McCain's response to the crisis that did him in. We all know what happened, but it bears repeating. On the Monday of that critical week, McCain was shown reassuring the crowd that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" in an almost word-for-word echo of Herbert Hoover's response to the stock market crash of 1929. Talk about famous last words! He then went on to say that AIG should not be bailed out, then again, maybe it should. But the classic of the week was when he said that if he were President, he'd fire Chris Cox, the head of the SEC. Never mind the fact that the President can't actually fire the Chairman of the SEC, imagine thinking that the solution to the complex financial crisis could be found by firing one person! He then, of course, went on to suspend his campaign, sort of, and go to Washington to sit in on the President's meeting like a potted plant. He asked no questions at the meeting and gave no suggestions. Great contribution, John!

Meanwhile, contrast all that with Obama's response to the crisis. Granted, he didn't seem to know what to do, either, but neither did anyone else. Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke seemed to be making it up as they went along, and Bush appeared to not understand it any better than the man in the street. What he did do, however, was act reassuring and presidential. He assembled a team of wise men, including Paul Volcker, Larry Summers, and Robert Rubin and had his picture taken with them. It was as if to say, I don't know what to do, either, but unlike John McCain, I'll ask the experts and proceed soberly and deliberately, not run around like a chicken with its head cut off. Once again, McCain appeared to be the riskier choice. So much for who'd be better in a crisis. Imagine if it was an international incident and McCain had his finger on the button! Then again, don't.

So there you have it. Now if McCain should somehow win this thing I'll have to rewrite this posting completely.