Thursday, January 5, 2017

What if we have it all backwards?

That's right; what if we're asking the wrong question? What if, instead of asking why there are so many murders in Chicago (since the long-term rate is actually down), why aren't we asking why (and how) the murder rate in New York and Los Angeles has dropped so low?

Tired of hearing me talk about this? So am I. Someone suggested to me the other day that my New Year's resolution, instead of eating less sugar, should be doing "something about the murder rate in Chicago." (I guess everyone's a comedian.) In case you'd like to reread my last three posts on the subject, click here, here and here.

But I really am getting a little tired of seeing pieces like this from CBS News, "Chicago saw more 2016 murders than NYC, LA combined" (my emphasis):

New York, the nation’s largest city, logged 334 homicides in 2016, according to the New York Daily News, while the country’s second-largest city, Los Angeles, saw 294, reports the LA Times.

While New York City saw a slight decrease in homicides and Los Angeles a slight increase for 2016, both have hit historic lows in the past several years

Isn't that the story? Not that Chicago's murder rate is so high (since it is actually down historically), but that New York's and LA's are so low!

I can't find the statistics about Los Angeles just yet, but check out these numbers from New York (or just look at that chart at the top of this post):

New York City murders by year:

1970: 1117
1971: 1466
1972: 1691
1973: 1680
1974: 1554
1975: 1645
1976: 1622
1977: 1557
1978: 1504
1979: 1733
Avg: 1556.9

1980: 1814
1981: 1826
1982: 1668
1983: 1622
1984: 1450
1985: 1384
1986: 1582
1987: 1672
1988: 1896
1989: 1905
Avg: 1681.9

1990: 2245
1991: 2154
1992: 1995
1993: 1946
1994: 1561
1995: 1177
1996: 983
1997: 770
1998: 633
1999: 671
Avg: 1413.5

2000: 673
2001: 649
2002: 587
2003: 597
2004: 570
2005: 539
2006: 596
2007: 494
2008: 522
2009: 471
Avg: 569.8

2010: 534
2011: 515
2012: 414
2013: 332
2014: 328
2015: 352
2016: 334
Avg (so far): 401.2

And to refresh your memory, here are the average annual murders in Chicago per decade:

1970s: 827.5
1980s: 738.1
1990s: 824
2000s: 550.3
2010s (so far): 502

I know I've written a lot about this lately, but I really do believe people are asking the wrong question, and that Chicago is getting a bad rap in the process. The long-term murder rate in Chicago is down. Do I need to repeat that? The long-term murder rate in Chicago is down. The better question is, Why are the rates in New York and LA down so much more? Let's find out why that is the case and then talk to me about Chicago.

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