What if we have it all backwards?

That's right; what if we're asking the wrong question? What if, instead of asking why there are so many murders in Chicago (since the long-term rate is actually down), why aren't we asking why (and how) the murder rate in New York and Los Angeles has dropped so low?

Tired of hearing me talk about this? So am I. Someone suggested to me the other day that my New Year's resolution, instead of eating less sugar, should be doing "something about the murder rate in Chicago." (I guess everyone's a comedian.) In case you'd like to reread my last three posts on the subject, click here, here and here.

But I really am getting a little tired of seeing pieces like this from CBS News, "Chicago saw more 2016 murders than NYC, LA combined" (my emphasis):

New York, the nation’s largest city, logged 334 homicides in 2016, according to the New York Daily News, while the country’s second-largest city, Los Angeles, saw 294, reports the LA Times.

While New York City saw a slight decrease in homicides and Los Angeles a slight increase for 2016, both have hit historic lows in the past several years. 

Isn't that the story? Not that Chicago's murder rate is so high (since it is actually down historically), but that New York's and LA's are so low!

I can't find the statistics about Los Angeles just yet, but check out these numbers from New York (or just look at that chart at the top of this post):

New York City murders by year:

1970: 1117
1971: 1466
1972: 1691
1973: 1680
1974: 1554
1975: 1645
1976: 1622
1977: 1557
1978: 1504
1979: 1733
Avg: 1556.9

1980: 1814

1981: 1826

1982: 1668

1983: 1622

1984: 1450

1985: 1384

1986: 1582

1987: 1672

1988: 1896

1989: 1905

Avg: 1681.9

1990: 2245

1991: 2154

1992: 1995

1993: 1946

1994: 1561

1995: 1177

1996: 983

1997: 770

1998: 633

1999: 671

Avg: 1413.5

2000: 673

2001: 649

2002: 587

2003: 597

2004: 570

2005: 539

2006: 596

2007: 494

2008: 522

2009: 471

Avg: 569.8

2010: 534

2011: 515

2012: 414

2013: 332

2014: 328

2015: 352

2016: 334

Avg (so far): 401.2

And to refresh your memory, here are the average annual murders in Chicago per decade:

1970s: 827.5

1980s: 738.1

1990s: 824

2000s: 550.3

2010s (so far): 502

I know I've written a lot about this lately, but I really do believe people are asking the wrong question, and that Chicago is getting a bad rap in the process. The long-term murder rate in Chicago is down. Do I need to repeat that? The long-term murder rate in Chicago is down. The better question is, Why are the rates in New York and LA down so much more? Let's find out why that is the case and then talk to me about Chicago.