Thursday, March 17, 2016
Now that we know...
(I told my son the other day that, as I understand it, the way it works is that the candidates look at the polls on the eve of the convention and find out essentially who on their short list -- or long list -- would help them the most with whatever demographic they're targeting the most. So, in other words, this exercise is completely useless. But, hey, it's a horse race, so sit back and enjoy the show!)
Since I printed a picture with Trump on the left, let's start with the Republicans. And on Paddy Power, John Kasich leads the top three:
Kasich, 5/2 odds
Chris Christie, 11/4
Nikki Haley, 5/1
Kasich makes the most sense to me because he's a likable enough fellow who could provide a bridge to the establishment. If anyone could say, "Donald, don't do that," it would be Kasich. (Now whether or not Trump would listen is another story.) Also, he's the popular governor of a state the GOP badly needs to win the White House.
As for the other two, does the GOP really need another bombastic northeastern bully on the ticket? I don't think so. Besides, which state could Christie deliver for the Republicans? Certainly not New Jersey. And Gov. Haley of South Carolina? Boy, she'd have to eat a lot of crow to take the job! But, like Kasich, she's from the establishment (via the tea party) and could hopefully -- hopefully -- provide a check on the Donald's worst instincts. Like Christie, though, what state would she help Trump win, South Carolina? The Republicans could run practically anyone and they'd take the Palmetto State.
On the Democratic side, Paddy Power has Julian Castro and Tim Kaine tied for first at 3/1 odds. Elizabeth Warren and Labor Secretary Tom Perez (I had to Google his name) are tied for second at 7/1. While we're at it, let's throw in Sen. Sharrod Brown as well.
Castro's easy: he's young, male and Hispanic -- three things Hillary is not. But while he's 41 years old, he looks like he's about 21 and could raise questions about his readiness to take over in a crisis. Hence Perez's name, I suppose; he's male and Hispanic but 54 (and looks like he's 64). Kaine is a boring old white guy (stop snickering!) who could presumably deliver his home state of Virginia. Brown's the same, except he hails from Ohio and is seen as more liberal. Sen. Warren would be an interesting choice: two women on the national ticket! My guess, though, is she'd only be chosen if Bernie Sanders's supporters made a stink. It would have to be a big stink, however, to take a chance on an all-female ticket (and Mrs. Clinton is famous for playing it safe). Also, the current governor of Massachusetts is a Republican and Democrats could lose Ms. Warren's seat in the Senate (remember Scott Brown?).
So that's a snapshot of where we are in the Veepstakes. (Purely speculative at this point.)
* I ran into another one of my neighbors yesterday and when I said the two nominees were in place she said she wasn't so sure about Mrs. Clinton. "I keep reading about those emails," she shook her head. "Obama will probably instruct his attorney general not to pursue it -- but she should be IN JAIL!"
Yikes. I guess there are more kooks around here than I thought.