Who da ya like...

...in 2016, Scott Walker or Jeb Bush?

I don't mean whom would you prefer; I mean who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

As for me, I'd rather see Jeb as the standard-bearer; he strikes me as a moderate, in tone if not ideology. Walker, on the other hand, is a True Believer, and that scares me. (For an interesting piece on Wisconsin's sluggish economy since Walker took office, click here.)

But back to the horse race. In a new PPP poll, Scott Walker leads the GOP field nationally with 25 percent. Ben Carson is in second place with 18 percent and Jeb Bush is in third with 17.

And in another new poll from Quinnipiac University this morning, Scott Walker leads in Iowa with 25 percent, followed by Rand Paul at 13 percent, 11 percent each for Ben Carson and Mike Huckabee and only 10 percent for Jeb Bush.

So Walker's the frontrunner, right?

Not so fast. On PredictWise and Paddy Power, Bush still leads over all, with Marco Rubio in second and Walker in third. So, to paraphrase Groucho Marx, who are you going to believe, the polls or the prediction/betting websites? I'll go with the latter.

But keep your eye on Rubio; the Florida senator could be the dark horse in the race. I keep reading that not only is Rubio the best communicator in the party, but also has the best command over policy. (Personally, I haven't seen either yet, but then again, I can't believe an Ayn Rand disciple is considered the intellectual leader of the GOP.) But Rubio can bridge the establishment and tea party wings of the party in a way that Bush can't. And he's probably a lot more ready for prime time than Walker, who has proven himself something of a rookie so far.

But Bush is still the favorite.