Tuesday, May 7, 2013
I can't figure out...
If the bill passes, the president gets to take credit for advancing a key piece of his second-term agenda.
But if the bill fails, the Republican Party's brand gets tarnished further, with implications for the midterms in 2014 and the presidential election in 2016.
Also, a defeat could derail the candidacy of Sen. Marco Rubio (above). The one-time tea party darling, now the favorite of the establishment, could find his support for the bill a millstone around his neck in the primaries. It wouldn't be hard to imagine a Sen. Rand Paul or a Sen. Ted Cruz running to the right of Rubio on this issue. And with the more moderate GOP candidate removed from the race, a Hillary Clinton would be that much more likely to win in 2016.
So, either way, Republicans: pass the immigration bill or torpedo it. Politically, it doesn't much matter to me.