From where I sit, Newt Gingrich...

...has to be considered the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. Even though Intrade has Mitt Romney favored by 45% to 34.5% (as of this writing), the Irish betting Web site has Gingrich leading handily in three of the first four important contests: Iowa, South Carolina and Florida. (Romney is still way ahead in New Hampshire, where he owns a vacation home.)

If Gingrich wins in Iowa, finishes a reasonably close second in New Hampshire, and then wins in South Carolina and Florida, I don't see how he doesn't win the nomination.

Is Newt just a flash-in-the-pan, like Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Herman Cain? I don't think so. First of all, Newt is peaking at just the right time; there's only about a month left before the Iowa Caucus. Second, unlike Trump, Bachmann and Cain, Gingrich has real experience in governing; he was the Speaker of the House in the 1990s. Third, unlike the others, the former college professor and Ph.D. in history can claim real intellectual gravitas.

But the most important thing Gingrich brings to the table -- and what the base is hungering for this year -- is his ability and willingness to "take the fight" to President Obama. The single biggest motivating factor among Republicans this year is their intense, visceral hatred of the president. Even though it's largely irrational -- and brought on by watching way too many hours of Fox News propaganda -- it's real and it's palpable. And Newt is the perfect candidate to scratch this itch, because he's mean. Just read this quote from an interview he gave to the National Review Online:

“What if [Obama] is so outside our comprehension, that only if you understand Kenyan, anti-colonial behavior, can you begin to piece together [his actions]?” Gingrich asks. “That is the most accurate, predictive model for his behavior.”

Gingrich also agreed with Dinesh D'Souza that the president's father was:

“...a philandering, inebriated African socialist, who raged against the world for denying him the realization of his anticolonial ambitions, [and] is now setting the nation’s agenda through the reincarnation of his dreams in his son.”

Talk about red meat for a fearful, nativist base!

But that's not all. Gingrich has played on suspicions of the "elites" throughout his career and has shown particular disdain in the Republican debates this fall for the "media." Go get 'em, Newt!

This election is certainly not one for the GOP establishment. If it were, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels or Jeb Bush would be the nominee. And it's not necessarily one for the tea party, either. If so, Sarah Palin or Michele Bachmann would be the standard-bearer. No, I think 2012 is the year that an anxious, angry Republican Party nominates a junk-yard dog to take on the liberal black guy with the funny name in the White House. Our White House. And Newt Gingrich is perfect for that role.