Thursday, May 13, 2010

The big news in Pennsylvania...

...has been about the Democratic primary next Tuesday, which pits veteran Senator Arlen Specter against Representative Joe Sestak. Polls indicate that the two are pretty much in a dead heat as the race draws to a close.

If this has appeared on your radar screen at all, i. e., if you're a political junkie like me who has no life, then you know that Specter--who is the more centrist of the two--was a long-time Republican who switched parties last year, and Sestak--who is the more liberal--is a former admiral in the navy and blah, blah, blah.

The more interesting angle to this story is what awaits the winner of this primary. Pat Toomey, the likely Republican nominee, is a former member of the House and was also president of the Club for Growth, which was the original home for tea partiers before they were called tea partiers. In other words, he's on the far right. How far?

Well, according to Harry Enten at Pollster.com:

Toomey ranked more conservative than 97.9% of all United States legislators since 1995. He had a more conservative voting record than J.D Hayworth, Jim DeMint, and was about as conservative as Jesse Helms. Only Tom Coburn and Tom Tancredo scored further to the right.

To put it into prospective, Pat Toomey would most likely be the second most conservative Republican in the United States Senate, which would be quite an accomplishment considering Pennsylvania has supported every Democratic Presidential candidate since 1992 (and Obama won it by 10%).

More conservative than Jim DeMint? Is that possible? There's more:

Toomey...still has a slight lead over both Democrats in a potential general election showdown, though less of a lead than he had earlier this year. In a hypothetical matchup, Toomey leads Specter 35 percent to 33 percent, and leads Sestak 29 percent to 28 percent.

I guess that means it's as good as tied, since the general election isn't until November. If Sestak wins next week (and the momentum seems to be in his favor), Quaker Staters could be faced with a stark choice in the fall between a true liberal and a true conservative. Considering that Pennsylvania has become one of the biggest swing states, the outcome could be really telling.

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