Friday, December 11, 2015

The Iowa caucuses are...

...on February 1, in 52 days. That's only seven weeks from Monday.

If you look at the latest from the Huffington Post aggregate of 235 polls from 33 pollsters you'll find it to be essentially a four-man race, with Ben Carson fading fast:

1. Donald Trump, 35.8 percent
2. Ted Cruz, 14.1
3. Marco Rubio, 12.3
4. Ben Carson, 11.9

The average of polls at Real Clear Politics is similar, with Carson falling since his peak in early November:

1. Trump, 30.4
2. Cruz, 15.6
3. Carson, 13.6
4. Rubio, 13.6

Over at Paddy Power, the Irish betting website, it's a five-man race if you include Jeb Bush and Chris Christie (Carson is in sixth place, at 40/1 odds):

1. Rubio, 11/8 odds
2. Trump, 9/4
3. Cruz, 5/1
4. Bush, 8/1
5. Christie, 12/1

It looks like the world has finally caught on that Dr. Carson, while perhaps a brilliant surgeon, is thoroughly unqualified to be president of the United States. Jeb Bush, although he's going backwards in the polls, can't be written off entirely because his super PAC still has over $100 million. And Chris Christie, with the endorsement of the New Hampshire Union Leader, could conceivably do well enough in that state's primary to be back in the thick of the race.

But, having said all that, it appears today that the GOP nomination is a three-man race between Trump, Rubio and Cruz. Charlie Rose asked a number of pundits the other night who was the likeliest Republican nominee and (with about 5:10 remaining in this video) most of them (reluctantly) said Trump. I'll go with the lone dissenter, Evan Osnos, and say it remains to be seen if Trump can translate these good poll numbers into actual votes. While the others were basing their opinions on data and evidence, I'll use a more faith-based approach. And that is to say I have too much faith in America to think one of the two major parties would nominate someone so clearly unqualified for the job.

P. S. There's reporting that the Republican Party brass is preparing for a contested convention. Pinch me!

1 comment:

Ed Crotty said...

Nate Silver's 538 also -