Friday, September 18, 2015

Like any good political...

...junkie, I can't wait to see the latest polls after Wednesday night's Republican debate. I expect Carly Fiorina, the consensus winner, to get a bit of a bump, largely at the expense of the two frontrunners, Donald Trump and Ben Carson. (The rest, I'd say, will stay in single digits.)

But until the polls come out, we have only the betting and prediction markets to go on. (They might be better, anyway; and they have the advantage of updating in real-time.) So let's get right to it; where do we stand at the end of the week?

Paddy Power (with odds):

1. Jeb Bush 7/4
2. Donald Trump 3/1
3. Marco Rubio 6/1
4. Scott Walker 7/1
5. Ben Carson 8/1
6. John Kasich 11/1
7. Carly Fiorina 12/1

PredictWise (with percentage chance):

1. Jeb Bush 37%
2. Marco Rubio 17
3. Donald Trump 13
4. Carly Fiorina 9
5. Scott Walker 4
6. Ben Carson 4

PredictIt (with price):

1. (tie) Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush $0.30
2. Carly Fiorina .23
3. Donald Trump .19
4. Ben Carson .18

Oh, and by the way, in case you were wondering, all of them still show Hillary beating Jeb in the general.

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