Friday, September 4, 2015

I think it was Groucho Marx*...

...who famously asked, "Who you gonna believe, me or your own eyes?"

It's Friday, and while we're waiting for the August unemployment report, let's check in on the 2016 race for president.

In the latest poll, from Monmouth University, Donald Trump tops the Republican field with 30 percent, a new high:

Trump 30 percent
Ben Carson 18
Jeb Bush 8

And in the Huffington Post aggregate of 151 polls from 29 pollsters, the results look much the same:

Trump 32.5
Carson 13.1
Bush 7.7

So, to sum it up: Trump has the support of almost a third of all Republicans while Jeb is mired in single digits.

Okay. Now let's check in with the betting markets. According to Paddy Power, the plutocrats who bet $114 million on Jeb to win are sticking with the son of one president and the brother of another (at least for now):

Jeb 13/8
Trump 7/2

So, who you gonna believe, me or your own eyes?

Or maybe a better question is, which one is "your own eyes," the polls or the bookmakers?

I'm not sure I know the answer, but if it's the bookies, then Hillary still beats Jeb.

* This is widely attributed to Groucho Marx, which is close but not quite right: as the wikiquote page for Groucho tells us, the line was actually spoken by Chico Marx -- though at the time he was dressed up as Groucho, so any confusion would be entirely understandable.

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