Monday, May 11, 2015

I have two thoughts...

...this morning on the 2016 presidential campaign.

The first is that the Republicans have four candidates, and I'm being generous to Scott Walker and Rand Paul. The establishment has really settled on two: Jeb Bush, and, if he falters, Marco Rubio. (An heir and a spare, as the Brits would say.)

From PredictWise:

Bush, 32 percent
Rubio, 20
Walker, 18
Paul, 9

And from Paddy Power:

Bush, 15/8 odds
Rubio, 4/1
Walker, 9/2
Paul, 8/1

The second is that elections hinge on "the income growth rate in the second and third quarters of the election year and the incumbent party’s tenure in office."

So, you tell me where the economy is a year from now and I'll tell you who wins the 2016 election. Oh, heck, I'll tell you right now: the economy will be at least as good as it is right now and voters will give the president another term, just like in 2012.

Until further notice, Hillary beats Jeb.

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