Steve Chapman says that Sarah Palin...

...is the front-runner for the 2012 Republican nomination (my emphasis):

If she enters the race, Palin will have the inside track. A recent Gallup poll found that among Republican voters, [Palin] is more popular than Abraham Lincoln, with a 76 percent favorable rating -- higher than any other potential GOP presidential candidate listed by Gallup. The nomination is starting to look like it's hers for the asking.

But appearances are deceiving. Palin would more likely be one of those outwardly formidable candidates whose campaigns peak on the day they announce. The qualities that have made her a media star threaten to make her a dismal candidate.
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It's one thing to Tweet your thoughts about Obama and Nancy Pelosi or endorse candidates on Facebook while hiding from skeptical reporters. It's another to match wits on issues with smart, well-informed, politically savvy conservative opponents who are determined to expose your shortcomings.

If Palin couldn't handle an interview with Katie Couric, how would she handle debates? Those come fast and furious in the primaries -- and both Romney and Huckabee can draw on their 2008 experience.

In that kind of setting, winks and one-liners won't take you far. Her opponents will ask her questions she would rather not answer, such as "Why were you for the Bridge to Nowhere until you were against it?" and "If you walked away from the governorship, how can we count on you not to quit the presidency?" They will also display a grasp of substance that Palin doesn't have and shows no interest in acquiring.

I usually agree with Chapman. But I think he's missing something here. And that is that if Palin runs, she may conduct a completely new and unconventional campaign. I predict that if she does decide to take the plunge (and I don't think anyone knows that yet, not even Palin herself), she won't grant any interviews or take part in any debates. And why should she? Neither plays to her strengths, and her supporters won't demand it of her.

Remember, all Palin needs -- especially in what may turn out to be a crowded field -- is a plurality. Sarah Palin can sprint to the nomination by winning primaries and caucuses with only a plurality of the vote.

The race to watch for clues will be Sharron Angle's in Nevada. She's a tea party Republican who's also shunning the media and her opponent. If she wins it may foreshadow Palin's run in 2012.