Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Bruce Rauner is up...

...over Gov. Pat Quinn of Illinois by three percentage points, 43-40, in a new poll by Rasmussen. Or should I say, Rauner is up by only three points in a poll by Republican-leaning Rasmussen.

I've thought for a while now that Rauner would win in November. It's just in keeping with the Zeitgeist: he's a tea party-type Republican in the mold of Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin or Gov. Rick Scott of Florida. Rauner promises to cut taxes on the rich and gut the unions. (Is that supposed to be new?) But people nowadays seem to love that approach. Will it work? I don't know. Walker is still wildly popular in Wisconsin even as he drives the Dairy State farther and farther into the ditch. My guess is that Rauner will win but serve only one term. I mean, honestly, is cutting everything really the path to prosperity? Could it be that simple? Or is investing in the future the route to take? If it were really the former, Mississippi would be the model to emulate. Or Wisconsin wouldn't have dropped so precipitously in job creation since Walker was elected. Who wants to start a business in a state with lousy services? If you lived in a condo and I told you I could cut your assessments but that the elevators wouldn't be inspected as often or the pool wouldn't get cleaned regularly, would you consider that a good deal? The truth is, schools, roads and other infrastructure cost money. There's just no way around it.

I would have thought for sure that Rauner would be up by more than three points at this stage of the game. You could interpret the poll as the challenger having room to grow as people become more familiar with him while the incumbent is stuck below the magic 50% mark. That's certainly plausible. But I'm not so sure. A lot of people seem to underestimate Gov. Quinn. I think he's performed reasonably well given the mess he inherited. And I also suspect he's as dumb as a fox. Don't write him off just yet.

1 comment:

Ed Crotty said...

Agree totally - Quinn is "scrappy". And in Illinois, it is always Madigan that has all of the power. He's been the "shadow" Governor for many years.