Reality check...

...time: despite yesterday's disappointing jobs report, President Obama is still crushing Mitt Romney on Intrade. (The map looks good for the Democrats.) And Rob Portman, below, is pulling away in the Veepstakes.

Don't trust Intrade? Fair enough. After all, in the recent SCOTUS decision, the Irish betting Web site was colossally wrong about the individual mandate. On the day before the news, the odds were almost eighty percent that the mandate would be struck down.

But I maintain that Intrade was actually right, because the question on everyone's mind was, "How will Anthony Kennedy vote?" And the famous swing justice sided with the minority. Intrade was only wrong because no one -- and I mean no one -- anticipated that John Roberts would be the deciding vote.