Specifically, they were all convinced that the president's moves last week to weaken Obamacare would finally -- finally! -- be the thing that would make his voters turn against him.
I responded that Trump said he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose any support, and so far he's been right.
Their thinking, which would be perfectly reasonable for any other politician, was that if Trump's voters' health insurance premiums, deductibles, etc. went up, he'd be blamed, thus dashing any hopes for a second term. After all, presidents are usually held responsible for whatever happens on their watch. But I disagreed and said I wouldn't be a bit surprised if Trump gets reelected in 2020. In fact, I think he's the odds-on favorite.
How do I get there? Well, first of all, incumbency is a huge advantage. No sitting president has been defeated for reelection since George H. W. Bush in 1992. Even the hapless W. was able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
Also, Trump remains the most popular Republican officeholder in America. I know, that's hard to believe, but last I checked around 90 percent of GOP voters approved of his performance. And that's much, much higher than either Mitch McConnell or Paul Ryan. (Talk about hapless!)
When my nephew cited the president's low approval ratings I reminded him that Trump's numbers going into November, 2016 weren't that great either.
But Hillary won't be on the ballot this time, they all countered! True, I said, but no matter who gets the Democratic nomination -- Bernie Sanders? Elizabeth Warren? Joe Biden? -- Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, Breitbart and the rest of the right-wing media will demonize* the Democratic standard bearer to the point where Republican voters will once again hold their noses and "come home" and vote for the GOP candidate. Why? Because, just like last time, Republicans generally vote for Republicans, Democrats vote for Democrats, and in an electorate that's essentially 50/50 Democrat/Republican Trump could just eke out a second term. In fact, I'd bet on it.
But back to the president's recent moves to weaken Obamacare. At first blush that would seem to be a bad move politically. As my relatives pointed out, shouldn't he get blamed if health care in this country gets worse on his watch? You would think so, wouldn't you? But what if Trump says, "See, Obamacare is failing just as I predicted. What's more, the do-nothing Republican Congress can't even repeal and replace it like they said they would so they are the ones to blame, not me." (Who do you think Trump's supporters would believe?) "So vote those clowns out of office and give me a Congress I can work with!"
And the Democrats? "They want single-payer, which is even more government! If Obamacare doesn't work, why would we want that?" (Never mind that Medicare works really well, better than the private sector. We're dealing with a demagogue here. And a good one.)
While I don't think Trump is the smartest guy in the world, he shouldn't be underestimated either. He may not know the first thing about policy or governance but he's pretty good at this politics stuff.
* Remember, Hillary actually had good numbers when she was Secretary of State. It wasn't until she announced for president that the scrutiny began taking its toll.
No comments:
Post a Comment