...he has 25 to 30 percent of the vote in polls among the roughly 25 percent of Americans who identify as Republican. (That’s something like 6 to 8 percent of the electorate overall, or about the same share of people who think the Apollo moon landings were faked.)
Silver puts Trump's chances of winning the Republican nomination at "higher than zero but (considerably) less than 20 percent." But he thinks you probably shouldn’t "rely solely on the polls to make your case; it’s still too soon for that."
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