If you believe...

...Paddy Power, the race for the Republican nomination is now between Marco Rubio and Donald Trump:

Rubio 11/8
Trump 4/1
Jeb Bush 6/1
Ben Carson 7/1

Now to be clear, this is only a snapshot of where we are today. But in my experience the betting websites are more reliable than the polls. Do I think it will stay this way? Not necessarily. In fact, three months out, I think the race has no clear front-runner and is totally up for grabs. And don't count out Ted Cruz or John Kasich just yet.