I can't figure out...

...if this immigration bill is a good thing or not, but I'm pretty sure it's a win-win for President Obama and the Democrats.

If the bill passes, the president gets to take credit for advancing a key piece of his second-term agenda.

But if the bill fails, the Republican Party's brand gets tarnished further, with implications for the midterms in 2014 and the presidential election in 2016.

Also, a defeat could derail the candidacy of Sen. Marco Rubio (above). The one-time tea party darling, now the favorite of the establishment, could find his support for the bill a millstone around his neck in the primaries. It wouldn't be hard to imagine a Sen. Rand Paul or a Sen. Ted Cruz running to the right of Rubio on this issue. And with the more moderate GOP candidate removed from the race, a Hillary Clinton would be that much more likely to win in 2016.

So, either way, Republicans: pass the immigration bill or torpedo it. Politically, it doesn't much matter to me.