After Tuesday night's debate...

...it seems like we're back to where we were before the first one two weeks ago: President Obama is leading Governor Romney on Intrade, 65-35%.

In hindsight, the first debate was probably a fluke: Romney was at his very best while the president was at his very worst. On Tuesday night, however, the two candidates returned to form: Romney looked like either a smarmy used car salesman or every boss you've ever hated. And the president looked, well, presidential: intelligent, reasonable and dignified.

The election is less than three weeks away. It'll be close because the country is more polarized than at any time since the Civil War. The president should garner a little over 50 percent of the popular vote and somewhere between 270 and 300 electoral votes. (But I won't rest easy until it's over.)