I just woke up to the news...

...that Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin will be Mitt Romney's running mate.

My initial response is that it's a sign of Romney's weakness as a candidate; I think he would have preferred Rob Portman or Tim Pawlenty. This is not the decision of someone who's winning.

Second, the White House must be thrilled. The campaign is shaping up to be exactly what they wanted: a choice, not a referendum.

Third, if Romney does lose (and I think more and more Republicans are suspecting that), he can bring the party's base down with him. "Hey," Romney can say, "Don't blame me; I didn't lose because the campaign was too moderate."

And last, this could be a career-ender for Ryan. Seriously. The Democrats and the press are going to tear him to shreds. Prepare to hear a lot about Ayn Rand in the next three months -- a lot.

More to come later.