Reality check...

...time. Here's the 2012 Electoral College map; it's pretty similar to the one in RealClearPolitics (which I couldn't  copy). 

If you color Ohio (18 electoral votes) and Virginia (13) blue it brings President Obama's total to 283, thirteen more than the 270 needed to win reelection. (I'd give him four more for New Hampshire.) 

Is this reasonable? Well, according to RCP, the president leads Governor Romney in most polls in Ohio and Virginia. Also (and more important), from a piece in Time: 

At 7.4%, Ohio’s unemployment rate is about a half-point better than the national average of 8.1 percent; more importantly, it’s improving about twice as fast as the national number. Virginia has a relatively stellar 5.6 percent rate; that’s better than Romney’s target for the nation at the end of his first term. 

Unless the economy takes a dive, I don't see how the president loses.