Thursday, January 12, 2012

Will Newt Gingrich emerge...

...as the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney?

According to Intrade, Romney is still heavily favored to win the South Carolina primary on January 21 (one week from Saturday), but Gingrich is now the clear choice for second place, over Rick Santorum.

Gingrich has been able to raise enough money to run TV ads in the Palmetto State. If evangelicals can coalesce behind the former Speaker he could make a good showing in the primary.

After South Carolina, Rick Perry (who barely shows up on Intrade's radar) should return to Texas. While Santorum and Jon Huntsman may limp into Florida on the 31st, their candidacies would no longer be relevant.

So after next week, the GOP race could be winnowed down to three: Romney, Gingrich and Ron Paul.

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