I think I might know...

...what's going on in Iowa. (Doesn't every blogger think he -- and only he -- knows something?)

After last night's debate and all of the bad press Newt Gingrich got this week, the other four non-Mitt Romney candidates in Iowa -- Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum -- are still alive. And, because they are all still alive, they may split the non-Mitt Romney vote on January 3, handing the caucuses to the former governor of Massachusetts. (Intrade now has Romney winning Iowa.) 

Here's how (I think):

Romney 23% (Which is about his ceiling.)
Gingrich 22% (And falling fast.)
Paul 21% (About his ceiling.)
___

Perry 15% (He's been barnstorming the state lately and working hard for the evangelical vote.)
Bachmann 13% (Also rising, and had a good debate last night.)
Santorum 6% (Has a following among cultural conservatives, like my mother.)

Think the numbers for the second tier are too high? Perhaps. But I didn't even include an Undecided column.

At any rate, that's what my tin foil hat is telling me.